Saul Justin Newman reveals faulty claims about people living over 105, citing pension fraud, errors, and poor record-keeping in globally celebrated longevity regions.

Saul Justin Newman, a research fellow at University College London, has become one of this year’s Ig Nobel laureates, recognized for research that uncovers critical issues in data surrounding extreme human aging. 

Newman’s findings challenge the long-held belief that people in certain “blue zones” live exceptionally long lives. According to him, most claims about people living beyond the age of 105 are plagued by fraud, administrative errors, and wishful thinking, leaving the data unreliable and “rotten from the inside out.”

Newman, who picked up his Ig Nobel Prize at a ceremony at MIT, hopes his work will push people to reconsider the data behind these claims—data that affects everything from pensions to healthcare planning globally.

The Ig Nobel Prize and Newman’s Reaction

The Ig Nobel Prize, a satirical twist on the Nobel Prize, celebrates scientific discoveries that “make people laugh, then think.” 

Newman’s phone call notifying him of the award reminded him of some of the more absurd past winners, such as research into whale snot and levitating frogs. He humorously quipped that he was thrilled to join such a club.

Despite the lighthearted nature of the award, Newman’s research tackles a serious issue: how faulty data on extreme aging leads to misconceptions about human longevity.

Flawed Longevity Data in Aging Claims

Newman’s central claim is clear: the data on extreme aging, particularly for individuals aged over 105, is deeply flawed. Through his research, Newman has tracked down 80% of the world’s supposed supercentenarians, only to find that almost none of them had valid birth certificates. 

In the U.S., out of over 500 individuals claiming to be 110 or older, just seven had proper documentation. Even worse, only 10% of these individuals had death certificates, further muddying the waters around longevity claims.

One of the most egregious issues, according to Newman, is the global fascination with “blue zones”—regions where people supposedly live longer and healthier lives. 

These zones, celebrated in popular media, are often touted as models for healthy aging. However, Newman’s findings suggest that the claims made about these regions are often based on false or inaccurate data.

The Myth of Blue Zones

For almost two decades, “blue zones” have been promoted as regions where centenarians thrive. Places like Okinawa, Japan, Sardinia, Italy, and Ikaria, Greece, have become the focus of numerous studies, cookbooks, and even documentaries. 

These regions are credited with being the epitome of healthy aging, largely due to lifestyle factors like the Mediterranean diet and an active social life.

Yet, Newman’s research debunks much of this narrative. For example, in Okinawa, one of the most famous blue zones, a Japanese government review in 2010 revealed that 82% of the individuals reportedly over 100 years old were actually deceased. 

Rather than revealing the secret to longevity, the real “secret,” Newman quips, was failing to register deaths.

Newman also points to the nutritional survey conducted by the Japanese government, which has tracked the diet and health of Okinawans since 1975. Contrary to the popular image of a vegetable-rich diet and healthy lifestyle, the data shows Okinawa had the worst health outcomes in Japan. 

Okinawans consumed the fewest vegetables and were heavy drinkers—hardly a recipe for longevity.

Other Blue Zones Also Under Scrutiny

Okinawa is not the only blue zone with questionable data. In Sardinia, Italy, and Ikaria, Greece, which are also celebrated for their aging populations, the reality is much different than what the blue zone narrative would suggest.

According to Eurostat, the statistical office of the European Union, Sardinia ranked 51st out of 128 European regions for old-age life expectancy when record-keeping began in 1990. 

Ikaria ranked even lower at 109th. Newman finds it astonishing that despite these poor rankings, these regions have been celebrated as longevity hot spots.

In Greece, Newman estimates that 72% of the supposed centenarians were either dead, missing, or cases of pension fraud. Greek pension authorities even admitted that over 9,000 individuals over 100 were fraudulently receiving pensions after their deaths.

Why the Data is So Faulty

There are several reasons behind the faulty data surrounding extreme aging, and Newman has explored many of them. In Okinawa, one of the main issues is related to the bombing of record-keeping halls during World War II. 

After the war, some survivors had their records lost or destroyed, while others died without proper documentation, leaving their names on registries long after their deaths.

Similar issues are found in Greece and Italy, where pension fraud has played a significant role. In 1997, Italy uncovered that 30,000 pension recipients were actually deceased, yet still “alive” on paper, collecting benefits. 

The areas that boast the highest number of supercentenarians are often those with the poorest record-keeping practices, particularly in regions where fraud is more common.

In the UK, Newman discovered that Tower Hamlets—a deprived area of London—had more centenarians than all of the wealthier areas of England combined. 

Yet, Tower Hamlets is consistently ranked as one of the worst places to be an elderly person, raising further questions about the accuracy of the data.

Global Impact of Faulty Longevity Data

The consequences of inaccurate longevity data extend far beyond academic curiosity. Newman warns that life expectancy data influences critical financial and healthcare planning worldwide. 

Pension rates, hospital capacity, and insurance premiums are all based on projected lifespans. If the data is flawed, so are the models used to predict these future needs.

Furthermore, this faulty data obscures what could be a far more important relationship between wealth and longevity. According to Newman, wealthy people tend to exercise more, eat healthier, and experience less stress—all key factors that can influence lifespan. 

However, many of the places currently thought to be longevity hubs, such as Malawi or Western Sahara, are clearly outliers. Newman’s recent preprint of a study using 72 years of UN data shows that many of these regions consistently report high numbers of centenarians, despite poor health outcomes and rampant fraud.

The Future of Longevity Research

Newman’s research suggests a radical rethink of how human longevity is measured. Rather than relying on documents that can easily be falsified or misplaced, he advocates for the involvement of physicists to develop an objective measure of human age. 

By using scientific metrics, we may one day have a more accurate picture of how long humans really live.

As for the Ig Nobel Prize, Newman hopes it will help raise awareness of the flaws in longevity research. While the scientific community may still be slow to change, he takes solace in the fact that at least the general public will “laugh and think” about the issues he’s uncovered.

And if science doesn’t acknowledge its errors in his lifetime? Newman jokes he’ll just pretend to still be alive until they do.